Policy and messaging focus →

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is preparing to hand down a pre-election budget that Labor probably would have preferred to avoid. While the government has delivered two consecutive surpluses, it now returns to deficits, a shift the opposition will seize on as evidence of poor fiscal management.

Labor’s budget strategy will likely focus on cost-of-living relief, positioning Australia’s economy as resilient amid global uncertainty, and reinforcing its Future Made in Australia agenda, though specific relief measures remain unclear at this stage.

The Coalition is facing internal confusion over policy announcements. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s proposal for a referendum on deporting criminal dual-nationals was quickly dropped after senior colleagues distanced themselves. Other proposals, such as adding an antisemitism question to the citizenship test and restricting work-from-home arrangements for public servants, have raised questions about the opposition’s political priorities. The lack of internal agreement on key policies is reportedly leading to frustration within the party.

While the Coalition has emphasised cost-of-living concerns, its focus has also included cultural and administrative issues, with Labor framing Mr Dutton’s approach as an attempt to avoid discussing the economy due to a lack of a credible alternative plan. Meanwhile, the Coalition argues Australians are worse off under Labor, despite improving macroeconomic indicators.

With under two months until the election, both parties are shaping their economic narratives. Labor will highlight stability and resilience, while the Coalition will argue cost-of-living pressures remain high. Next week’s budget and the Coalition’s response will be critical in defining the campaign’s economic debate.

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