Policy and messaging focus →

With the federal election possibly being called within days — although Cyclone Alfred may have something to do with that — Australian voters are disengaged and undecided, creating an unpredictable race. 

The latest polling suggests a tight contest, with neither major party commanding strong enthusiasm. Labor has made several announcements on key policy areas such as wages, Medicare, and cost-of-living relief, yet is struggling to translate this into voter enthusiasm. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has deteriorated to -8, and voters have been largely unmoved by the government’s messaging on economic stability. Even a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut, which Labor framed as proof of its economic management, was met with a tepid response. 

The Coalition, under Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, is taking a calculated approach in seeking to capitalise on dissatisfaction and bringing attention to what it believes are the failures of the Government’s policy agenda. Instead of contesting Labor’s Medicare funding pledge, it simply matched the policy and included some additional funding, neutralising a potential advantage for Labor. This small-target strategy, reminiscent of Tony Abbott in 2013 and Anthony Albanese in 2022, is looking to make the election a referendum on Labor rather than a contest of competing visions. However, this draws attention to the age-old political adage – oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. 

While voters may be open to change, they are not yet convinced by Mr Dutton. His approval ratings remain weak, and the Coalition has yet to reveal its suite of cost-of-living measures. With nearly half of voters undecided or willing to change their minds, the election remains volatile.