Policy and messaging focus →

As Australians prepare to vote, the final opinion polls show Labor maintaining a modest but consistent national lead. Most major polls place the two-party-preferred split between 52–48 and 53–47 in Labor’s favour. Yet with primary support for both major parties well below historical highs, the outcome will likely hinge on a handful of key marginal seats where local dynamics and preference flows could tip the result either way.

Labor has run a cautious campaign focused on stability and economic management, pointing to falling inflation. While it has largely avoided high-risk announcements, it has made assertive moves in Greens-held seats, seeking to win back progressive voters in inner-city electorates. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enters the final day with a lead on preferred prime minister metrics, though Labor’s national primary vote remains fragile.

The Coalition, under Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, is targeting outer-suburban and regional electorates with a message focused on cost-of-living pressures, migration, and national security. Preference flows from right-wing minor parties, such as One Nation, whose support has grown modestly during the campaign, could be decisive in such seats. Mr Dutton has sharpened his rhetoric in recent days, criticising sections of the media and favouring conservative talk-back and Sky “after dark” shows over traditional press conferences.

The final leaders’ debate highlighted the contrast in campaign tone. Mr Albanese sought to reassure voters with economic credentials, while Mr Dutton positioned himself as a conviction politician unafraid of cultural flashpoints. Mr Albanese was judged the winner by a panel of undecided voters.

International comparisons have also crept into the narrative. Labor has drawn on parallels with Canada, where a progressive government recently overcame poor polling to see off the conservative opposition. Polling here shows US President Donald Trump remains a net negative for the Coalition — a factor Labor has repeatedly highlighted.

Despite Labor’s lead, both sides are expecting a close finish. With high early voting and significant numbers of undecided voters, the election will ultimately come down to how a fractured electorate resolves its competing demands — and which party best understood the mood of the margins.

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