Policy and messaging focus →

The penultimate week of the federal election campaign was marked by significant Coalition announcements on crime and national security, but public holidays and the death of Pope Francis limited their impact. The Coalition’s A$750 million crime package, featuring a new strike team and tougher laws, sought to reassert its law-and-order credentials, particularly in Victorian outer suburbs. However, it risked reviving past controversies, such as Peter Dutton’s 2018 “African gangs” comments. Launching the policy on Easter Monday also muted its reception.

Later in the week, the Coalition pledged to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, citing global threats. While consistent with traditional strengths, the promise lacked detailed costings and again struggled for attention amid the news of the Pope’s death. That death further disrupted an already truncated week, compressing campaign time and forcing parties to pause activity. Labor appeared less affected, having already landed key messages earlier in the campaign.

The third leaders’ debate was the week’s centrepiece, producing sharper exchanges than previous rounds. Both leaders landed blows, with Mr Dutton attacking Mr Albanese on Medicare and energy, and Mr Albanese hitting back over spending cuts and Mr Dutton’s past record. But with Labor ahead in most polls, Mr Dutton arguably needed a standout moment — and did not get one.

Early voting, now expected to account for more than half of ballots, has reshaped campaign dynamics. Labor’s decision to front-load its announcements contrasts with the Coalition’s late push, drawing internal criticism. Meanwhile, Teal and independent candidates are making gains in multiple Coalition-held seats, forcing resource reallocation and highlighting vulnerabilities in both major parties.

Labor’s campaign has been steady, if not energising. While its Medicare claims have faced scrutiny and concerns remain around housing and immigration, it has largely avoided major stumbles. The Coalition, by contrast, has mounted an ambitious but uneven campaign, with good discipline but poor timing. Its path to power remains narrow and relies on regionalised swings in Victoria and parts of NSW like the Hunter, Central Coast, and South Coast. As early votes are cast, both sides are under pressure to make their final week count.

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